Written by: Jesse Morse, MD
After being touted as one of the best rookie prospects in the past 20 years, it felt like Caleb Williams disappointed in his rookie season. Especially compared to how fantastic Jayden Daniels was and how impressive CJ Stroud was the year before.
But was he really that bad? As we look a little deeper, we see there’s nice highlights here.
Williams only threw 6 INTs in 562 pass attempts. That’s the 3rd best rookie INT % ever. He’s very careful with the ball. For comparison Stroud had 5 INTs in 499 attempts and Daniels had 9 INTs in 480 attempts.
That’s prime Aaron Rodgers territory. As a rookie. Impressive floor. Shout out to JetPackGalileo on Twitter for the info.
82% of his fantasy points came with throwing, only 18% with rushing, very similar to Baker Mayfield and Trevor Lawrence.
I’d like to see him bump up the rushing % a little bit to get closer to the range of Lamar Jackson (26%) or Drake Maye (28%), as I don’t think the Josh Allen (33%) and Jayden Daniels (35%) range is realistic.
Now he gets a massive upgrade with Ben Johnson and his play calling. Johnson hand-picked this job, specifically to work with Williams. He could have worked with Drake Maye and the Patriots, but he opted for Williams and the Bears instead. That should speak volumes. The Bears continued to improve their offensive line, spending good money on Joe Thuney.
Johnson hand picked impressive rookie tight end Colston Loveland early in the 1st round over fellow potentially elite rookie tight end Tyler Warren. They had they choice of either, Johnson made sure he got his guy. It was an easy decision IMO, as Loveland was better than Warren at a younger age. He’s a good blocker, fantastic receiver and could be the next Travis Kelce. While it’s unclear how much Loveland will contribute in his rookie season, dynasty-wise he’s a top 3 pick (only behind Bowers and McBride). I drafted him in my only dynasty start up so far stacking him with Williams.
The Bears essentially replaced Keenan Allen with sneaky potential stud Luther Burden. Burden went later than expected, and lands on the same team as the player many ‘experts’ have compared him to: DJ Moore. I think he has massive YAC potential, and he’s another elite weapon for Johnson to scheme in.
I don’t expect Keenan Allen to resign with the Bears, but remember that they still have another young WR with monster potential in Rome Odunze. While it’s unclear how the target distribution will be, it’s safe to say that Williams is loaded with weapons. My guess is: DJM > Odunze > Loveland > Burden > Swift.
The Bears chose not to upgrade their RBs, as D’Andre Swift enters the season as the primary RB, with Roschon Johnson as his backup, but they did add Kyle Monangai out of Rutgers. There’s been some rumblings that they might trade for the Seahawks Kenneth Walker but I won’t worry about that until it happens.
If you told me that the Bears had a top 5 offense in the NFL at the end of the 2025 season I wouldn’t be surprised. The Lions had one last season with Johnson calling the plays and now he actually has a more electric and talented staff (although he doesn’t have a Jahmyr Gibbs).
Caleb Williams just needs to take the next logical step forward, stay tough, don’t crumble under pressure, be smart with his decisions and don’t be afraid to use his legs when needed. He just needs to play to his talent and Johnson will perfectly design an offensive around all the weapons and Williams’ skill set. The Bears offense is loaded with playmakers including DJ Moore, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift. I don’t expect Cole Kmet and Roschon to play much of a role in 2025.
For redraft purposes I’m good with Williams as my QB1, especially at his current ADP. I think he’s in the QB6-10 range for me, only behind Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and Jayden Daniels. The upside, play calling and weapons are there. He could make the leap that Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been able to make (yet). I could justify him over Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Drake Maye, Justin Fields, CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield
I’d probably draft him ‘naked’ in redraft, maybe stacking him with Burden or Odunze late. DJ Moore and Loveland’s price will likely be too expensive to stack either of them with him. I won’t be targeting Swift but I’m not avoiding him either. He could be sneaky this year. Williams is a top 4 QB to target in dynasty.