Who I'm High on, and Who I'm Avoiding - Dr. Morse
Updated 8/28/24
As the biggest draft weekend is near, I wanted to provide you with some context as to why I like certain players
I keep getting this question over and over again, so I feel like it is important to answer it. Who should I draft in the beginning of the first round?
I think there are a couple different answers here, and it really depends on draft settings, as well as which way you are leaning.
The way I look at it. There are only three true bellcows in the NFL this year. CMC, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson.
As elite as CMC has been, I have some reservations about his health and his volume this year, so I'm fading him at the 1.01. If I had my preference choice, I would take Breece Hall first, then Bijan. Both Hall and Robinson are in their prime, and should be able to handle an even greater workload than 2023. The data for breakouts shows that most of them break out between first and second year, or second and third year. That’s where these two are. Hall gets a healthy Rodgers which could make him even better than last year.
Since there are only three true cows, you can set yourself apart by taking one of those three early in the draft. The way I look at it is that there are about 12 wide receivers that could potentially finish in the top 10. The same can’t be said about running backs.
Now that CeeDee lamb has signed, I have no concerns, taking him first overall if you are going for a wide receiver. Tyreek Hill will be a close second, despite him dealing with likely a mild sprain of his right thumb. I am avoiding Justin Jefferson early in the round simply due to Sam Darnold and concerned for double or possible triple teaming. Ja’Marr Chase is unlikely to step on the field without a new contract and we are less than 10 days away from week one. While he is elite, I have concerns about increased soft tissue injury risk since he hasn't fully participated with his team. Later in the round I could justify taking him or JJ.
My favorite wide receivers in the middle of the round are Garrett Wilson and AJ Brown. I’m picking Wilson as my breakout wide receiver this year and think he could potentially lead the league in not only targets, but also receiving yards and touchdowns. I think Aaron Rodgers targets him early and often, and he puts up some monster games in 2024. AJ Brown could also have his best year to date, in light of the arrival of Kellen Moore.
If you decide to draft a wide receiver in round one, then I think it would be in your best interest to target Isiah Pacheco or Josh Jacobs as your RB1. Josh Jacobs has top 10 potential this year due to a combination of his receiving ability, and lack of solid depth behind him. With AJ Dillon suffering a season ending neck injury, and Marshawn Lloyd, who is dealing with a hamstring strain, the Packers backfield is thin. I also really like Kenneth Walker this year and think there is a chance that he becomes a top five back heading into 2025.
I’ve been going back and forth on Achane. He has the potential to be the next Alvin Kamara in his prime, especially if they use him in the slot, although I do have some soft tissue and injury concerns that may prevent him from getting the volume he needs to finish as the top five RB. I prefer him as your RB2 or RB1 with a stacked WR-WR start.
For my WR2, I am targeting Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Rashee Rice. I think the arrival of Kellen Moore in Philadelphia is going to be massive for Devonta Smith. This is going to correlate really well with him staying in the slot position and the arrival of Saquon Barkley is only going to improve their offense.
Jaylen Waddle has the potential to finish in the top 10 again. Although he hasn’t practiced regularly for almost a month secondary to it is likely a grade 2 left calf strain. I think the Dolphins will use a combination of Hill, Waddle, and Achane as receivers which could be a potential nightmare for defenses. With that being said, I do have some concerns about Waddle's ability to stay healthy.
Rashee Rice had a fantastic rookie season and I think he’s going to take a big step forward this year. Since his court date is not until November, I think there is a very good chance that he does not have any legal issues until 2025. With Xavier Worthy, who I also really like, stretching the field (as well as Hollywood Brown) and Travis Kelce doing what he does best, I think Rice becomes an elite receiving option and has top 12 potential.
Another wide receiver that you can get much later that I really like, especially in PPR, is Diontae Johnson. Johnson is one of the few wide receivers that has been able to handle a large volume of targets over the past several years. Now he finds himself as Bryce Young’s security blanket and Canales will use this to his advantage. Johnson is going to be targeted early and often, and at the end of the year, Johnson’s ADP is going to look like a steal.
Another 2 guys that I have been targeting often in the middle rounds are Chris Godwin, who is shifting back to the slot role full time, as well as Christian Watson. Yes, Watson's injury history is significant, and his injury risk score is high, but if he was able to correctly address and fix his hamstring issues, he is going to be a top 20 wide receiver. The data shows he was the alpha when he was on the field in 2023. He is a touchdown machine (1 TD every 5.7 touches), and if he can somehow manage to stay healthy, he might lead the league in touchdowns.
Tight end is really deep this year. This might be the deepest class that I can remember. Unless the league is tight end premium, there’s no reason to draft a tight end in the first three rounds. The top six tight ends all have potential to finish as the first overall so I think the plan is to wait and get the best value. If I had a choice it would probably be Evan Engram who had a whopping 134 targets last year, but I’ve been finding myself drafting Kyle Pitts as well. Sometimes I miss the top eight, and end up taking Brock Bowers, but I’m starting to have some minor concerns about his foot injury.
For quarterbacks, unless this is a start 2 QB or Superflex league, I have been waiting to draft a QB until the middle rounds. As much as I like Anthony Richardson‘s potential, his reckless style of play concerns me. My top two targets are Kyler Murray, who could have a top five fantasy season, and Jayden Daniels, with his insane rushing upside. I am avoiding all non-rushing QBs unless I happen to miss out on them, then I am willing to take Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff due to his weapons and schedule (almost all indoor games).
I think Javonte Williams has the potential to bounce back strong in 2024, finally healthy after his complicated ACL tear in 2022. With Nick Chubb starting on the PUP, Jerome Ford continues to be a fantastic value and could put up RB1 numbers early in the season. I don't mind James Conner, I’m coming around on Chase Brown, and I really like Tyjae Spears as well.
Some of my favorite late round targets for RB are Trey Benson, Ray Davis, Jaylen Wright, Kimani Vidal and MarShawn Lloyd.
For WRs I like Brian Thomas Jr. (could smash with TLaw), JSN (huge bounce back season coming), Ladd McConkey, Greg Dortch, Demarcus Robinson and Ja’lynn Polk (nice stack when Maye debuts). In deeper leagues I like Tyler Boyd, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jalen McMillan.
For TEs, I like Tyler Conklin, Greg Dulcich, Jonnu Smith, Taysom Hill and Colby Parkinson as late round darts.
My top 6 defenses are: Bills, Cowboys, Steelers, Browns, Dolphins and Giants.
My top 6 kickers are: Aubrey, Tucker, Butker, Little, Koo and Karty.
Hope this was helpful, good luck!