Who has a chance to finish as the RB1 overall in 2024?
This article will help Music to figure out who will potentially serve as we are the one overall in 2024.
The list below identifies the RB1’s total touches. Identify the trend.
Touches total RB to finish overall last 10 years
- 2014 - Le’Veon Bell - 372
- 2015 - Devonta Freeman - 338
- 2016 - David Johnson - 373
- 2017 - Todd Gurley - 343
- 2018 - Saquon Barkley - 353
- 2019 - Christian McCaffrey - 404 ?
- 2020 - Alvin Kamara - 270
- 2021 - Jonathan Taylor - 372
- 2022 - Austin Ekeler - 311
- 2023 - Christian McCaffrey - 339
There was only ONE RB in the past 10 years
(Alvin Kamara in 2020) that had less than 311 touches in a RB1 finishing season. Besides Ekeler in 2022 (311), every other RB had at least 338 touches.
If an RB you’re drafting doesn’t have 315+ upside, then the odds of him finishing as the RB1 are 10% or less based on data over the past 10 years.
In 2023, there were only 6 RBs that had 300+ touches (CMC, R White, Etienne, Mixon, Henry, & Pollard).
I think there’s a couple others that could reach 300+ in 2024, these were the totals in 2023:
- Breece Hall (299)
- Saquon Barkley (288)
- Najee Harris (284)
- James Cook (281)
- Bijan Robinson (272)
- Josh Jacobs (270)
- Kyren Williams (260)
- Isiah Pacheco (249)
- Jahymr Gibbs (234)
In my opinion, these 14 RBs are the ONLY RBs likely to finish as the RB1 in 2024.
- Christian McCaffrey
- Rachaad White
- Travis Etienne
- Joe Mixon
- Derrick Henry
- Tony Pollard
- Breece Hall
- Saquon Barkley
- James Cook
- Bijan Robinson
- Josh Jacobs
- Kyren Williams
- Isiah Pacheco
- Jahymr Gibbs
In order to finish as the RB1 overall you need to be able to have at least 200 rushing carries, ideally over 300, plus at least 40 receptions as well. Part of the issue in the NFL nowadays is that the majority of the backfield are in committees, so rarely does one player get over 300 touches. Health of the player is vital as well. If the player misses over three games, it is statistically impossible for him to finish out as the RB1 in total points scored.
Take this list and compare each player’s injury risk score (see injury draftguide) to give you an idea of which ones have a better chance than others. That will help narrow down who to draft in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds.
Names not on this list that I don’t feel confident in them finishing as the RB1 in 2024:
- Jonathan Taylor
- Alvin Kamara
- De’Von Achane
- Kenneth Walker
- Aaron Jones
- Devin Singletary
- James Conner
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- David Montgomery
- Zamir White
- Nick Chubb
- Javonte Williams
- Jonathan Brooks
- Trey Benson
That’s not to say these players can’t be helpful, but due to different factors each of them are unlikely to finish as the RB1. Volume concerns, injury history, and offensive line are the primary concerns.
